The world economy is in its worst shape in two years, with the euro area and emerging markets deteriorating and the danger of deflation rising, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll of international investors.
A plurality of 38 percent of those surveyed this week described the global economy as worsening, more than double the number who said that in the last poll in July and the most since September 2012, when Europe was mired in a recession.
Much of the concern is again focused on the euro area: Almost two-thirds of those polled said its economy was weakening while 89 percent saw disinflation or deflation as a greater threat there than inflation over the next year. Respondents said the European Central Bank and the region’s governments are making the situation worse by pursuing too-tight policies, and fewer expressed confidence in ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Japan Enters Recession as GDP Disappoints
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) – Japan’s economy has unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter for the second consecutive quarter. Bloomberg View’s Willie Pesek discusses the impact on the country’s economy on “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg)
GOLDMAN: Everybody In Texas Is Resigned To Lower Oil Prices
China Bad Loans Jump Most Since 2005 as Economy Cools
While new lending was “solid,” banks are cautious and demand for credit is “frail” because of a property downturn, UBS economists including Donna Kwok and Wang Tao said in a note dated Nov. 14. They see economic weakness triggering cuts in benchmark interest rates from early next year.
Party leaders have discussed lowering the 2015 growth target from this year’s 7.5 percent goal, the person with knowledge of their talks said last week. Gross domestic product will rise 7.4 percent this year, according to analysts’ median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.
SHOCKER: JAPAN IS IN RECESSION
TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s economy shrank an annualised 1.6 percent in July-September, confounding expectations for a modest rebound after a severe contraction in the previous quarter and solidifying the view premier Shinzo Abe will delay a second sales tax hike next year.
Abe has said Monday’s GDP data would be key to his decision on whether to proceed with the increase to 10 percent in October next year. That decision had been expected by year-end.
Traders Are Passing Around A Hedge Fund’s Warning Of ‘Dangerous’ Delusions
The Federal Reserve and its central bank peers around the world unleashed unprecedented amounts of monetary stimulus in an effort to pull the economy out of the financial crisis.
While growth remains anemic, we are no longer in crisis mode. So you could argue that the monetary policy worked.
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