Truth Frequency Radio
Sep 30, 2014

Just a week ago, the Russian energy minister made the first public ‘threat’ of gas supply “throttling” disruptions to Europe but judging by the data that has just been released, it appears the ‘throttling’ has begun. Bloomberg reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell 15% year-over-year in Q3 – the most in over two years – as natural gas transit through Ukraine plunged 54% year-over-year. In 2013, Gazprom sent 60% of its supply via Ukraine pipelines, in August that dropped to 39%, and in September only 34%. Of course, Europe remains confident its storage efforts will buffer any “Winter War” disruptions, as we noted here, but as Citi warned previously, “if colder weather arrives, storage levels will be drained,” and then there is the Spring (and German industry needs).

As Bloomberg reports,

Russian 3Q Gas Supplies to Europe Drop ~15% Y/y, Most in 2 Yrs


Export outside CIS in 3Q set to decline to ~34bcm from 40.4bcm last yr; biggest drop since at least 2Q 2012, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on preliminary data of Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.


Exports fell 15% in 2Q 2012; decreased 25% in 3Q 2010


Russia Cuts Sept. Natgas Transit Via Ukraine 54% Y/y to 3.7Bcm


Russia’s natgas transit through Ukrainian pipelines continues decreasing; it dropped to ~3.7bcm this mo. vs 4.5bcm in Aug. and 8.1bcm in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on website data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, Energy Ministry.


Transit to EU ~3.5bcm in Sept. vs 4.4bcm in Aug.


Total Russian deliveries via Ukraine in Jan.-Sept. ~50bcm vs 62.5bcm yr earlier


Gazprom Cuts Sept. Transit Via Ukraine to 34% of Exports


Gazprom sent ~34% of Sept. natgas exports outside CIS using Ukrainian pipelines vs 39% last mo., ~60% in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, energy ministries of Ukraine, Russia.


Ukraine transshipped ~42% of Russian gas to Europe in Jan.-Sept. vs 51% last yr


UkrTransGaz ships Russia’s gas to borders w/ Moldova, 4 EU countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, which    delivers some volumes to Turkey

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Who will be hurt most?


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As we discussed before, Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.


European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.


“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.